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General election June 8th
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munkle Offline
Hooligan Apologist

Posts: 4,114
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Post: #31
RE: General election June 8th
(18-04-2017 15:59)TheSuffolkSeasider Wrote:  Wasn't suggesting a Lib Dem win, but enough to cause a hung parliament.

There isn't a chance they'll make up that much ground. Even if they did, they'd bend over and take a dry bumming off the Tories just like last time.
18-04-2017 16:19
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Bentent Offline
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Post: #32
RE: General election June 8th
(18-04-2017 15:22)Cheesyleps Wrote:  You're one of those... The sky was supposed to have fallen in already.

I voted leave just so you know Wink
18-04-2017 16:39
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foggy Offline
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Post: #33
RE: General election June 8th
(18-04-2017 15:00)McPoolmob Wrote:  This means absolutely nothing, remember Brexit and Trump.

You have a poor memory. The victories for Brexit and Trump were both within the normal margin of error. It amazes me that people don't seem to remember Leave was ahead throughout much of June. Those votes weren't examples of these huge polling errors they have been made out to be. Instead, they were examples of the media reporting them poorly, and electorates that are illiterate when it comes to reading them.


The only recent polling errors in the UK were 1992 and 2015, both of which were hit by the Shy Tory effect and as Cheesy said, underestimated the Conservative vote. No UK polling error has ever underestimated Labour. I also think the polls will be better this time around as the pollsters have changed methodology slightly to accommodate the Shy Tory effect, so they probably aren't overestimating Labour anymore.


So... my prediction. With a 15-20 point lead and a voting system which benefits them (FPTP), the Conservatives are on for a majority of 100-150, maybe even more. I expect Labour to fall well below 200 seats.

I want to see what the polls are saying once the campaign is in full swing. People were being asked this question with the expectation that the election was still 3 years away. Now it is only a couple of months, maybe 2015 Labour voters who said they were going to vote Tory will now have the implications of that really dawn on them and think, no I have to go with my traditional Labour vote. Who knows. I need to look into historical data patterns to see whether snap elections show a lurch in the polls. I guess we will know soon enough, polls are already being released post-announcement.

I do know that historically low polling parties don't gain much ground. There is probably some sort of feedback loop, if Labour kicks off the campaign on 20-25 points (which it will) and looks like it has no chance of winning, voters will ditch it, maybe they will vote tactically for Lib Dems or the Greens in areas they are strong.

If the polls remain steady, Labour are doomed. I challenge any single Labour supporter on here who is taking solace in the 'what do the polls know' fantasy to give me a single example in history where the polls have ever underestimated a political party in the UK by 15-20 points. If those polls don't move, quickly, it's over before a ballot is even stamped. It is impossible for Labour to win.
(This post was last modified: 18-04-2017 19:20 by foggy.)
18-04-2017 19:18
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Magic147 Offline
Not a penny more

Posts: 13,938
Joined: Sep 2012
Post: #34
RE: General election June 8th
Could a party campaign on the rejoining of the European Union I wonder.

#Brenter
18-04-2017 20:39
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Cheesyleps Offline
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Post: #35
RE: General election June 8th
(18-04-2017 16:39)Bentent Wrote:  I voted leave just so you know Wink

Sorry that was a really snide sounding comment reading it back. It wasn't intended to be.

Im just not sure where such pessimism comes from. Just about every doom and gloom economic forecast from before the vote has not come true. The economy is growing much quicker than all forecasts.

Let's just see how it goes. Even something as seemingly small as the freedom to negotiate our own trade deals is worth its weight in gold. The EU moves at a glacial pace due to trying to please 28 member states.
18-04-2017 21:00
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Cheesyleps Offline
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Post: #36
RE: General election June 8th
(18-04-2017 20:39)Magic147 Wrote:  Could a party campaign on the rejoining of the European Union I wonder.

#Brenter

They could call themselves the Anti-Democracy Party. Sounds wonderful ;-)
18-04-2017 21:01
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Magic147 Offline
Not a penny more

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Post: #37
RE: General election June 8th
I think the lack of Brexit-related economic disaster is at least partly down to the fact it hasn't happened yet.
18-04-2017 21:03
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Magic147 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: General election June 8th
Hmmm


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18-04-2017 21:06
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whitstabletangerine Offline
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Post: #39
RE: General election June 8th
(18-04-2017 10:56)Bentent Wrote:  Edit to add the vote is tomorrow and they require 2/3rds majority to agree to it

If Foggy is correct and Labour are likely to lose 100 seats then why on earth would Labour MP's vote for an election that is likely to see so many jobless, Turkeys and Christmas comes to mind.

Nics Sturgeion calls it a miscalculation on May's part so why not the SNP and Labour get together and try and derail the numbers necessary for an election.

If I am correct and all Labour and SNP's voted against it they would total 283 out of 650 MP's. well over a third, enough to call a halt to her plan.
18-04-2017 21:14
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rockontommy Offline
Je suis Jasper

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Joined: Jan 2013
Post: #40
RE: General election June 8th
Helpful guide


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18-04-2017 21:19
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foggy Offline
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Post: #41
RE: General election June 8th
(18-04-2017 21:01)Cheesyleps Wrote:  They could call themselves the Anti-Democracy Party. Sounds wonderful ;-)

We want you to vote for us to be put into Parliament and enact laws based on our manifesto promise. So anti-democratic!
(This post was last modified: 18-04-2017 21:23 by foggy.)
18-04-2017 21:23
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daib0 Offline
Interforum Gamemaster!

Posts: 5,144
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Post: #42
RE: General election June 8th
THE ODDS


Paddy Power

Most Seats

1/5 Conservatives

4/1 Labour

33/1 UKIP

33/1 Liberal Democrats

500/1 Green Party

Overall Majority

8/13 Conservative majority

2/1 No overall majority

9/1 Labour

100/1 Liberal Democrats

100/1 UKIP

500/1 Green Party



Coral

Most Seats

1/10 Conservative

7/1 Labour

33/1 Liberal Democrats

100-1 UKIP

500-1 Greens

Overall Majority

1/5 Conservative

5/1 No overall majority

12/1 Labour

66/1 Liberal Democrat

100/1 UKIP

1000/1 Greens



Ladbrokes

Most Seats

1/10 Conservatives

7/1 Labour

33/1 Liberal Democrats

100/1 UKIP

Majority betting

1/5 Conservatives

5/1 No overall majority

12/1 Labour

66/1 Liberal Democrats



William Hill

Majority betting

2/9 Tory

4/1 No overall majority

14/1 Labour

25/1 Lib Dem

150/1 Ukip
18-04-2017 21:24
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Cheesyleps Offline
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Post: #43
RE: General election June 8th
(18-04-2017 21:14)whitstabletangerine Wrote:  If Foggy is correct and Labour are likely to lose 100 seats then why on earth would Labour MP's vote for an election that is likely to see so many jobless, Turkeys and Christmas comes to mind.

Nics Sturgeion calls it a miscalculation on May's part so why not the SNP and Labour get together and try and derail the numbers necessary for an election.

If I am correct and all Labour and SNP's voted against it they would total 283 out of 650 MP's. well over a third, enough to call a halt to her plan.

Corbyn has spent the best part of a year berating May as having no mandate to govern. If he blocks it now he shows himself up as an opportunist hypocrite.

Most Labour MPs will be happy to take the pain for the next five years to see the end of Corbyn's leadership.

The SNP will use a repeat of their previous success as an argument to justify another independence vote.
18-04-2017 21:33
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foggy Offline
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Post: #44
RE: General election June 8th
(18-04-2017 21:33)Cheesyleps Wrote:  Most Labour MPs will be happy to take the pain for the next five years to see the end of Corbyn's leadership.

Exactly this.

Also, Corbyn's line today to his MPs is right. If you block this, you are forcing 3 more years of Tory government. How on Earth can an opposition party do that.
18-04-2017 21:37
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Cheesyleps Offline
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Post: #45
RE: General election June 8th
(18-04-2017 21:23)foggy Wrote:  We want you to vote for us to be put into Parliament and enact laws based on our manifesto promise. So anti-democratic!

If your entire platform is to overturn the democratic will of the people then you are anti democratic regardless of whether you take a legitimate path to do so.

A clear majority voted to leave the EU. The autistic screeching of a bunch of butt-hurt lefties and media types who can't accept they lost is not enough to justify overturning the will of 17.4 million voters.

The noisy provinces and London were the only ones who wanted to stay. It isn't surprising therefore that the media coverage sways so far towards the whining of the losers.
18-04-2017 21:40
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