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Brexit going well...
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TheSteed Online
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Post: #16
RE: Brexit going well...
(26-07-2017 09:21)McPoolmob Wrote:  They seem to be very keen on our expertise and skills, Japan is not put off by brexit either.
I wonder if Graphine will take off and other innovations?
They quite like our aerospace as well.
Doesn't the EU need us more than we need them?
Strange how our economy is doing better than there's.

1. Yeah, they are so keen on our expertise, they are putting immigration deals together so our skilled workers move to those countries instead of staying here. (I know, I'm one of them who's received the offers).

2. If graphene takes off, it's countries like China and the US and those in mainland Europe who will be doing the innovation. Why? Because our scientists used to get their grants from the EU. Our scientists are also receiving the same offer as above, particularly from countries like Germany and France.

3. Our aerospace industry? Don't know much about it currently, but as far as I know it mainly serves us. When was the last time the US or China or any major European country ordered new aerospace technologies with us?

4. No, the EU does not NEED us. At all.

5. We have the worst economy of the developed nations. It's worse than Greece. Before the Brexit vote, growth was estimated at 2%, it's now 0.7!
(This post was last modified: 26-07-2017 10:25 by TheSteed.)
26-07-2017 10:25
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thetruth1953 Offline
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Posts: 2,813
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Post: #17
RE: Brexit going well...
Growth figures released today say that our economy grew at 0-3% for the first six months of this year a bit different from the 2% before the referendum
26-07-2017 11:33
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Magic147 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Brexit going well...
UK GDP grew by just 0.3% in the last quarter.

We're a gnat's cock away from a self-induced recession, and still some people don't get it.
26-07-2017 11:34
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TheSteed Online
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Post: #19
RE: Brexit going well...
(26-07-2017 11:34)Magic147 Wrote:  UK GDP grew by just 0.3% in the last quarter.

We're a gnat's cock away from a self-induced recession, and still some people don't get it.

Just seen the figures released today on my lunch. Also saw some leave voters celebrating it just because it's a positive number!
(This post was last modified: 26-07-2017 11:56 by TheSteed.)
26-07-2017 11:55
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Magic147 Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Brexit going well...
(26-07-2017 11:55)TheSteed Wrote:  Just seen the figures released today on my lunch. Also saw some leave voters celebrating it just because it's a positive number!

Unbelievable, Jeff.
26-07-2017 12:03
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munkle Offline
Hooligan Apologist

Posts: 4,509
Joined: Mar 2012
Post: #21
RE: Brexit going well...
Well at least we'll get to make our own laws rather than blindly following the fatcat Brussels bureaucrats and their gold plated pensions!

And kick out all the Romanians.
26-07-2017 12:10
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Magic147 Offline
Not a penny more

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Post: #22
RE: Brexit going well...
(26-07-2017 12:10)munkle Wrote:  Well at least we'll get to make our own laws rather than blindly following the fatcat Brussels bureaucrats and their gold plated pensions!

And kick out all the Romanians.

You'll get a job writing for the Mail if you keep that up.
26-07-2017 12:13
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munkle Offline
Hooligan Apologist

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Post: #23
RE: Brexit going well...
(26-07-2017 12:13)Magic147 Wrote:  You'll get a job writing for the Mail if you keep that up.

Wink
26-07-2017 12:14
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foggy Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Brexit going well...
(26-07-2017 10:07)rockontommy Wrote:  Doesn't the EU need us more than we need them?

No. A larger trading bloc is better able to deal with the loss of trade with a smaller bloc (us) than vice versa.

Exactly. I'm amazed at how many times I have to point this out to Brexiters. We are losing 27 countries, the EU is losing one country.
(This post was last modified: 26-07-2017 12:59 by foggy.)
26-07-2017 12:58
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McPoolmob Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Brexit going well...
(26-07-2017 11:34)Magic147 Wrote:  UK GDP grew by just 0.3% in the last quarter.

We're a gnat's cock away from a self-induced recession, and still some people don't get it.

Exactly why we need to get out.
The last 45 years hasn't worked has it? So why will it get any better if we stay in? http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtcl...tedkingdom

Yep we're doing well in the EU.
26-07-2017 13:11
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TheSuffolkSeasider Offline
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Posts: 2,669
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Post: #26
RE: Brexit going well...
(26-07-2017 12:58)foggy Wrote:  Exactly. I'm amazed at how many times I have to point this out to Brexiters. We are losing 27 countries, the EU is losing one country.

Or is it losing four Scratch_chin
26-07-2017 13:12
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TheSteed Online
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Posts: 1,005,137
Joined: Jan 2012
Post: #27
RE: Brexit going well...
(26-07-2017 13:11)McPoolmob Wrote:  Exactly why we need to get out.
The last 45 years hasn't worked has it? So why will it get any better if we stay in? http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtcl...tedkingdom

Yep we're doing well in the EU.

Wow Laugh

You realise leaving the EU will increase national debt right? And yes, we have done very well out of being part of the EU.
(This post was last modified: 26-07-2017 14:14 by TheSteed.)
26-07-2017 14:12
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munkle Offline
Hooligan Apologist

Posts: 4,509
Joined: Mar 2012
Post: #28
RE: Brexit going well...
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brex...ebook-post

At least we can go back to having bendy bananas.

And no more rapes.
26-07-2017 14:48
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McPoolmob Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Brexit going well...
Capital & Conflict

The end of Europe
How the European time bomb will explode… and what that means for your money, Brexit and the stockmarket

In this report:

How a closed-door meeting with Alan Greenspan lead me to a shocking conclusion
Why Europe is doomed – politically and financially
What to do with your money to survive, whether you’re a novice investor or a seasoned veteran
A special report by Nick O’Connor,

Publisher, Southbank Investment Research

It’s the most fragile point in the worldwide financial system…

And this year, that fragility could be brutally exposed – with serious consequences for your money, your retirement and for Britain as a whole.

I’m talking about Europe.

As you’ll see in this report, the current problems in the eurozone that you’ve likely read about in the papers have been growing… morphing… and intensifying for nearly a decade. This year I believe they will strike at the heart of the entire European project.

I’m not the only one.

Today I also want to show you what I learned in a closed-door meeting with the world’s most powerful former central banker, Alan Greenspan. Pay close attention. Greenspan revealed why he’s so worried about Europe. In private conversation with our analysts he explained exactly what could happen.

That’s what this report is all about.


In particular I want to show you how the financial problems building in the European banking system will morph into a political crisis. And that could strike a mortal blow to the entire European project. If these problems continue to escalate… there won’t be a Europe for Britain to negotiate Brexit with!

Greenspan predicts the euro’s demise

Our meeting with Greenspan was private. There were no representatives of the mainstream press there. Most of them were down the road from us in Washington, preparing for Donald Trump’s inauguration. With that in mind, it’s worth us looking at precisely what he said concerning Europe since you won’t find it anywhere else but here.

Here’s what he said, with added emphasis from me.

There’s one thing that bothers me considerably, which nobody makes any mention of. There is in the European Central Bank [ECB] a mechanism as it exists of necessity where the European Central Bank is made up of the central banks of the European, euro area and there’s a thing called TARGET2, do you know what TARGET2 is?

TARGET2 at this particular stage is turning out to be an extraordinary large transfer from Bundesbank to essentially Italy and Spain, and most recently the European Central Bank. That means the Bundesbank is lending money to the European Central Bank and the question is – it’s big numbers. We’re talking 7,800 billion euro.

This can’t go on indefinitely because at some point somebody’s going to have the courage to move Greece out. Greece is in the ECB by accident. They came in under false pretences and the government, immediately following the government that got Greece fraudulently into the ECB, said the numbers were all wrong and if they were actually the numbers used they would not have been in, but nonetheless they let them stay. That was a terrible mistake. The Greek personal savings rate right now is -20%. You cannot run an economy at -20% savings rate.

Something is going to happen there. My view is it’s either going to be Greece – it conceivably could be Italy. The funny part of it is that the second largest contributor to the net flow in lending to Spain and Italy is Luxembourg. They’ve got some steel and they’ve got a few other things and they’ve got some banks, but it is extraordinary what is going on in this system while the total assets of [the] European Central Bank continue to go straight up. What would happen if there was a default of the euro?

In the United States, if there were a default on the dollar the US Treasury could always [step in]. For example, if the federal reserve went into default the US Treasury would bail it out but what do [European banks do?] There is no comparable vehicle to help the system.

I’m very worried. Mario Draghi, whom I know and he’s a very good guy, is just talking like we’ll do whatever is required. Well at some point somebody’s going to say, “I don’t want to accept euros.”

I didn’t expect Greenspan to make any major predictions about the US monetary system. He’s biased: the dollar is part of his legacy.

Like a parent incapable of seeing the flaws in their children, I doubt he’ll ever truly acknowledge the financial problems he helped create in the US.

That’s not true of the euro, though.

When it came to the eurozone he was surprisingly direct. From where I was sitting, it sounded like he believes the next major financial crisis will be triggered by either Greece or Italy and will result in the total destruction of the euro as a major currency.

Greenspan pointed out that Mario Draghi’s promise to “do whatever it takes” – otherwise known as his promise to flood the market with freshly printed euros until everyone just leaves him alone – has a flaw. It only works if people are willing to accept euros.

Someone in Greenspan’s position at the Federal Reserve doesn’t quite have this problem. The dollar is still the world’s reserve currency. For as long as that lasts, people are going to need dollars. You can print with abandon because there’s no real alternative.

That’s not true in Europe. There are two reasons why.

Two ways the euro can disappear

The first possibility is internal demand. By that I mean the demand for euros within eurozone nations. There’s a high level of demand there because people need euros to pay their taxes.

But those nations didn’t always use the euro. People have long memories. They remember when the euro didn’t exist and each nation had its own currency. Perhaps they even yearn for the good old days.

It sounds like Marine Le Pen does, anyway. In January she proposed the creation of a new basket of currencies to be used in Europe – a kind of shadow euro. France could then reinstate the franc and peg its currency to that basket.

That’s one way in which internal demand for euros could drop – a move back towards national currencies. Once you pay your taxes in francs… there’s not much incentive to hold euros.

The other mechanism would be external demand falling. That means the rest of the world looking at Europe, seeing its huge structural problems will never be resolved, and ditching the euro.

Again that would lead to a situation where “nobody wants euros” any longer. Draghi may as well be printing monopoly money at that point. He’d be out of ammo.

Of course, either one of those scenarios would likely trigger the other. External demand drying up would push more nations towards reinstating national currencies. Or vice versa. It doesn’t really matter. Europe is doomed either way.

A sordid history of central banking in Europe

Let’s dig into what else Greenspan said. There’s a whole sordid history of central and commercial banking subterfuge hidden between the lines. Take, for instance, the fact that Greenspan is direct about the fact Greece should never have been allowed into the euro to begin with. He even uses the word “fraudulent” to describe its admission.

But then, it’s ironic that he outlines what a good guy ECB chief Mario Draghi is in the very next breath. Why?

Because it was Goldman Sachs that helped Greece cook its books in such a way that it could enter the euro to begin with. The head of the GS International division for large parts of that process was… who?

You guessed it! Mario Draghi!

Never underestimate the ability of the Deep State and the global financial establishment to look after one another. The risks of cutting anyone loose or showing any genuine critical thinking about their actions would be highly dangerous to the system. Whether Draghi is a good guy or not is beside the point, but we certainly can’t take Greenspan’s word for it.

How Europe’s financial crises become political nightmares

It is worth considering why Greenspan is so concerned though. He highlights Greece and Italy as potential flashpoints in the next European crisis. Clearly he believes the endgame is a crisis in which the ECB becomes powerless due to the fact that people won’t accept euros any longer.

That crisis would have to be both financial and political in nature in order for something that drastic to happen.

How precisely would it blow up?

We’d need to see a renewed flare up in the “periphery” nations. Except this time the contagion wouldn’t just be financial, but political too – we’d likely see not just a spike in bond yields, but in support at the polls for anti-establishment, anti-euro parties.

2017 certainly has the potential to be the moment that happens. Perhaps it’ll be the beginning of the endgame for the European project.

In short, Europe has always been a political movement. It’s held together by political commitment. Logic dictates it’ll take a political disaster for it to end. But financial forces will create the conditions to make it possible.

Exactly what could that bring that about? Well, we’ve covered Greece. It shouldn’t even be a part of the eurozone. But then, it’s already knee-deep in a depression that’s bleeding the nation white. It hasn’t cracked yet.

But what of Italy? What could put the Italians in such a position that it could bring the entire system down?

That’s something we’ve been covering in detail for 12 months now. Tim Price, in particular, has been tracking the problem that’s come to be known as “le sofferenze”. Here’s how Tim put it in a recently published warning on the fate of the European project.

“Le Sofferenze” is what the Italians are calling their banks’ bad loans.
It means “the suffering”.

These non-performing loans are now so big they are stifling any hope of a banking recovery.

It all comes down to the country’s failing economy, which is still 8% smaller than it was BEFORE the 2008 financial crisis.

The chart below reveals the scale of the problem. Le Sofferenze now account for 18% of all loans.



To put that in context, Britain’s banks’ “bad loans” amount to less than 1.5% of their total. The global average is 4.3%.

And the problem is getting worse at a frightening speed: in the last five years, the sum of non-performing loans has increased 85%. The total now stands at €360 billion.

Let me repeat that: Italian banks have taken on 85% more “bad debt” in the last five years alone.

They do not have capital reserves to cover anywhere near that amount should they default.

Now, you only need look to the last crisis to understand how devastating non-performing loans can be to the global economy.

The 2008 recession was triggered by the build-up of bad loans in the US housing sector.

But the percentage of bad loans made by US banks in 2008 was just 5%. The bad loans made by Italian banks are currently more than three times that level.

So imagine the financial chaos, social unrest and negative impact of the last crisis all over again – and perhaps even worse.

Then you have weakness across the rest of the eurozone, including inside systemically important banks right at the heart of the European project. As Tim puts it:

In June, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) labelled Deutsche Bank “the most important contributor to systemic risks among the global banks”.

That’s a diplomatic way of saying: if Deutsche Bank goes down, the global financial system might be severely impacted.

It’s not hard to see why: Deutsche has derivatives contracts (obligations to buy or sell assets) worth an estimated €46 trillion. According to the Bank for International Settlements, that’s approximately 12% of derivatives outstanding worldwide. The sum is also roughly 14 times more than Germany’s GDP.

Deutsche has been in disarray for years now.

In other words, Deutsche Bank would make Lehman Brothers look boring. Back to Tim:

Restructuring its business model and building up capital to deal with litigation after years of malpractice has proven highly damaging to the bank.

In September, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) proposed that the bank should pay a $14 billion fine – to settle claims Deutsche mis-sold mortgage-backed securities before the financial crisis. While this figure is not set in stone, the bank only has $5 billion to cover it. Should it fail to persuade the DOJ to reduce the fine, it will be required to raise more capital urgently.

Deutsche Bank is in such a bad state, billionaire fund manager George Soros actually made a €100 million bet against the bank right after Britain’s EU referendum, predicting it would crash.

Deutsche Bank has made a lot of loans to the Italian banking system, too. That’s part of what’s weighing it down. Like I said, they’re joined at the hip. I’ll come to Italy shortly, but the long and short of it is – it’s not likely to get all of that money back.

There are problems elsewhere, too.

France:

Using the US stress test system, French banks BNP Paribas and Societe Generale – two of the six biggest in Europe – were found to have capital shortfalls (money required to survive a future crisis) of €10 and €13 billion respectively.

Only Deutsche Bank requires more (€19 billion). Another study concludes that France requires more money – in absolute and relative terms – than any other country to meet these requirements.

Spain:

In May, Spain’s Banco Popular saw its share price drop 25% in one morning after it admitted it needed to raise €2.5 billion – just one month after claiming it had “one of the best” savings reserves in Europe.

Remember the thesis we’re testing. The financial problems within the European banking system are going to morph into political problems that will pull the European project apart in 2017.

Bad debts, low growth, capital shortfalls, a business model slammed by negative rates… they’re the gunpowder.

What they need is a spark.

And that’s where politics comes in.

I believe I can show you, down to five specific dates you need to mark on your calendar, precisely when the whole thing will go up in flames.

The EU crisis calendar

There are plenty of financial problems to contend with in Europe. A fundamentally unsound monetary-but-non-fiscal union. Bad debts within the banking system in Italy. Systemically important banks in Germany suffering. Capital shortfalls in French banks. Low growth all round. Negative rates on savings just to make doubly sure the saving populace know they’re being utterly shafted.

Well, get ready. Because 2017 is year those problems manifest themselves at the polls.

That’s because, this year more than any other, there are several clear-cut opportunities for the people of Europe to send a message – or a shockwave – through the heart of the European political establishment.

Our own Tim Price put it bluntly in a recent letter on the topic:

The eurozone is on the precipice of a political collapse.

A series of elections will be held in 2017, with many to be fought on lines of “for” and “against” membership of the euro. For the first time since its inception in 1957, the European Union cannot afford to take its future for granted.

Germany – by October 2017: Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party has been losing seats to the anti-EU Alternative For Germany (AfD). A Merkel defeat would be the biggest possible blow to the EU’s future. Germany is the continent’s biggest economy.

Italy – by April 2018: general election after pro-EU prime minister Matteo Renzi was comprehensively defeated on 4 December 2016 in a constitutional referendum. Italy’s three opposition parties are in favour of leaving the euro, which they believe is preventing the country’s economy from growing.

Italy is perhaps the country with the biggest financial problems. Its banking system is suffering with an eye-watering number of non-performing loans. It had to bail out its oldest bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, just before Christmas last year. And on top of that, the entire nation has already experienced a decade of virtually zero growth (on top of virtually zero interest rates!).

Tim quotes economist Roger Bootle, who agrees with that assessment. Here’s what Bootle had to say on an imminent Italian departure.

“My view is that she [Italy] is more likely to leave the euro within the next year or two. The boost that this would give to Italian competitiveness would see Italian GDP recover and this would prompt other southern countries to leave.

Before long, the euro would be in tatters. Could the EU itself survive the collapse of its greatest project, along with the consequent recriminations and financial wranglings between Germany and the southern members? I doubt it.”

Those three major threats to the European political establishment – votes in France, Germany and Italy (potentially) – aren’t the only opportunities for anti-establishment movements to take root in Europe. But they’re certainly the biggest.

Any major change to the political landscape in those “core” nations would vaporise the glue that holds the European project together. It would only take one unexpected negative result (from the perspective of the mainstream media and the political elite) to make this year the year of europocalypse.

But it’s not just a case of those three nations. There are more votes on the horizon in the “periphery” nations. Tim explains:

But the potential dangers do not end with France, Germany and Italy. Other eurozone members holding elections soon include:

Netherlands – 15 March 2017: Geert Wilders vowed to withdraw the Netherlands from the EU should his surging far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) win. But thanks to the Netherland’s fractured electoral system, that was always unlikely. Instead, Wilders merely gained five seats, coming in second with 13% of the vote.

Hungary – by Spring 2018: the popular current prime minister Viktor Orban has incurred the wrath of the EU by erecting wire borders around the country – in defiance of the EU, which he openly disparages.

The economic failure of the euro is now starting to manifest itself politically. As deputy assistant secretary of the US Treasury, Dr Christopher Smart led the US response to the European debt crisis. In a paper for the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, published in January 2017, he writes,

“The European Project looks in trouble once again. Mounting political extremism, feeble growth and the loss of its second largest economy shape a convincing case that the integration of Europe’s political and economic institutions has failed to deliver. Sharp and unexpected political developments—a populist election victory or a fresh immigration crisis—may well trigger events.
(This post was last modified: 26-07-2017 15:22 by McPoolmob.)
26-07-2017 15:15
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TheSteed Online
Site Overlord

Posts: 1,005,137
Joined: Jan 2012
Post: #30
RE: Brexit going well...
A lengthy article that is built on misquotes and speculation.

Greenspan has already come out to say that he said no such thing.

A lot of the rest of the wild speculation and supposed future turmoil is BECAUSE of Brexit, not a reason for it to have happened.
26-07-2017 16:03
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